Costa Rica vs Curacao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Costa Ricavs
CuracaoThe model puts Costa Rica at 58%. The model leans toward Costa Rica. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Curacao.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Costa Rica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Curacao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Costa Rica is priced at 1.64.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Costa Rica at 58%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Curacao at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Costa Rica. Costa Rica is priced at 1.64. The draw is priced at 3.64. Curacao is priced at 5.13.
Curacao have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Costa Rica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Curacao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Costa Rica or Curacao?
Our model rates Costa Rica as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Costa Rica vs Curacao?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Costa Rica wins, 1 draws, 1 Curacao wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Trinidad and Tobago | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Costa Rica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Haiti | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Nicaragua | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a80aff87762417de82f9092 |
| 5 |  Dominican Republic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a80aff87762417de82f9092 |
| 6 | Curacao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.