CONCACAF Nations League

Honduras vs Suriname: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Hondurasvs

Suriname

Our predictionHonduras to win

Model score: Low · 19/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Honduras at 47%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Honduras47%

Draw28%

2 · Suriname25%

1 · HondurasDraw2 · Suriname

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.94+2.6%

1X2Honduras1.99+0.0%

1X2Draw3.40+0.0%

1X2Suriname3.78+0.0%

BTTSNo1.79-2.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-111.9%

1-011.8%

2-19.5%

2-09.4%

0-17.5%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

Honduras

Suriname

Expected goals

1.59Honduras

1.01Suriname

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score51%

Match DNA

Honduras Suriname

Key points

Honduras is priced at 1.99.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Honduras win1.99Fair

Double chanceHonduras or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	7	4	1
1	12	12	6	2
2	9	9	5	2
3	5	5	3
4	2	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Honduras at 47%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Suriname at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Honduras. Honduras is priced at 1.99. The draw is priced at 3.4. Suriname is priced at 3.78.

The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →