Barbados vs Saint Lucia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Barbadosvs
Saint LuciaThe model puts Saint Lucia at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Saint Lucia.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Barbados have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Saint Lucia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barbados have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Saint Lucia is priced at 2.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Barbados at 35%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Saint Lucia at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Barbados is priced at 2.55. The draw is priced at 3.4. Saint Lucia is priced at 2.65.
Barbados have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Saint Lucia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Barbados have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Saint Lucia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Barbados or Saint Lucia?
Our model rates Saint Lucia as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Barbados vs Saint Lucia?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Barbados wins, 1 draws, 1 Saint Lucia wins.
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guyana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Dominica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Cayman Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.