CONCACAF Nations League

Bermuda vs Guadeloupe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Bermudavs

Guadeloupe

Our predictionGuadeloupe to win

Model score: Low · 17/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Guadeloupe at 46%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Bermuda26%

Draw29%

2 · Guadeloupe46%

1 · BermudaDraw2 · Guadeloupe

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.93+2.8%

1X2Bermuda3.690.0%

1X2Draw3.300.0%

1X2Guadeloupe2.060.0%

BTTSNo1.80-2.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-112.0%

0-111.6%

1-29.4%

0-29.1%

1-07.7%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

Bermuda

Guadeloupe

Expected goals

1.04Bermuda

1.56Guadeloupe

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score51%

Match DNA

Bermuda Guadeloupe

Key points

Guadeloupe is priced at 2.06.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Guadeloupe win2.06Fair

Double chanceGuadeloupe or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	12	9	5	2
1	8	12	9	5	2
2	4	6	5	3
3	1	2	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Bermuda at 26%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Guadeloupe at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Guadeloupe. Bermuda is priced at 3.685. The draw is priced at 3.3. Guadeloupe is priced at 2.06.

The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →