CONCACAF Nations League

Jamaica vs Guatemala: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Jamaicavs

Guatemala

Our predictionJamaica to win

Model score: High · 79/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Jamaica at 58%. The model leans toward Jamaica. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Jamaica.
+The head-to-head record favours Jamaica (11-1-3).

Win probabilities

1 · Jamaica58%

Draw24%

2 · Guatemala18%

1 · JamaicaDraw2 · Guatemala

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Jamaica1.72+3.2%

BTTSYes2.05+0.1%

BTTSNo1.70-0.1%

1X2Guatemala4.83-1.4%

1X2Draw3.70-1.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

JamaicaDLWLW

GuatemalaLLLLW

Team strength rating

Jamaica

Guatemala

Most likely scorelines

1-013.5%

2-012.3%

1-110.6%

2-19.6%

3-07.4%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.82Jamaica

0.78Guatemala

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score45%

Match DNA

Jamaica Guatemala

Key points

Jamaica have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Guatemala have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Jamaica have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
Jamaica is priced at 1.72.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Jamaica win1.72Fair (+3.2%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	2
1	14	11	4	1
2	12	10	4
3	7	6	2
4	3	3	1
5	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Jamaica at 58%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Guatemala at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Jamaica. Jamaica is priced at 1.72. The draw is priced at 3.7. Guatemala is priced at 4.825.

Jamaica have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Guatemala have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Jamaica have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Guatemala have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →