Fluminense vs Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fluminensevs
Sociedade Esportiva PalmeirasThe model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 34%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fluminense have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fluminense have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 2.725.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fluminense at 32%. The model puts the draw at 33%. The model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fluminense is priced at 2.936. The draw is priced at 2.9. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 2.725.
Fluminense have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fluminense have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fluminense or Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras?
Our model rates Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 34% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Fluminense wins, 4 draws, 5 Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.