Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Independiente Medellinvs
MillonariosThe model puts Independiente Medellin at 45%. The model leans toward Independiente Medellin. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Independiente Medellin.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Independiente Medellin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Millonarios have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Independiente Medellin is priced at 2.2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Independiente Medellin at 45%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Millonarios at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Independiente Medellin. Independiente Medellin is priced at 2.2. The draw is priced at 3.62. Millonarios is priced at 3.1.
Independiente Medellin have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Millonarios have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Independiente Medellin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Millonarios have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Independiente Medellin or Millonarios?
Our model rates Independiente Medellin as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Independiente Medellin wins, 5 draws, 5 Millonarios wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Colombia. Categoria Primera A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  America de Cali | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22:6 | 24 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Cali | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 17:8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Atletico Bucaramanga | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17:9 | 20 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16:9 | 20 |
| 5 |  Club Atletico Nacional SA | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18:9 | 19 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 17:13 | 19 |
| 7 |  Deportes Tolima | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Club Independiente Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:11 | 16 |
| 9 |  Club Llaneros | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 14:14 | 14 |
| 10 |  Once Caldas | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14:15 | 12 |
| 11 |  Internacional de Bogota | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Cucuta Deportivo | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11:19 | 12 |
| 13 |  Aguilas Doradas | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Boyaca Chico | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Alianza Valledupar | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11:21 | 11 |
| 16 |  Junior de Barranquilla | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:14 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fortaleza Zipaquira | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13:18 | 9 |
| 18 |  Deportivo Pereira | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6:11 | 8 |
| 19 |  Deportivo Pasto | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 9:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Jaguares de Cordoba | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.