Metallist vs Chernigov: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Metallistvs
ChernigovThe model puts Metallist at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Chernigov (1-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Metallist have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chernigov have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Metallist have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Metallist is priced at 2.37.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Metallist at 38%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Chernigov at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Metallist is priced at 2.37. The draw is priced at 3.05. Chernigov is priced at 2.842.
Metallist have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Chernigov have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Metallist have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Chernigov have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Metallist or Chernigov?
Our model rates Metallist as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Metallist vs Chernigov?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Metallist wins, 1 draws, 2 Chernigov wins.
Odds movement
League table
Ukraine. First League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viktoriya Sumy | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10:3 | 16 |
| 2 |  SC Poltava | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:3 | 15 |
| 3 |  Oleksandriya | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:6 | 15 |
| 4 |  Kulikov-Belka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:8 | 14 |
| 5 |  Prykarpatye | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 14 |
| 6 |  Agrobiznes Volochisk | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:12 | 13 |
| 7 |  Feniks-Mariupol | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:10 | 13 |
| 8 |  Inhulets Petrove | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | 11 |
| 9 | Metallist | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 10 |  UCSA | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:14 | 9 |
| 11 |  Lokomotyv Kyiv | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7:9 | 9 |
| 12 |  Kolos Kovalivka II | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8:15 | 9 |
| 13 | Chernigov | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 14 |  Nyva Ternopil | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 15 |  Polissya Zhytomyr II | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:14 | 6 |
| 16 |  Probiy Gorodenka | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6:24 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.