Africa Cup of Nations

Senegal vs Mozambique: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Senegalvs

Mozambique

Our predictionSenegal to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Senegal at 80%. The model leans toward Senegal. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Senegal.
+The head-to-head record favours Senegal (6-0-0).

Win probabilities

1 · Senegal80%

Draw14%

2 · Mozambique6%

1 · SenegalDraw2 · Mozambique

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.50+11.9%

1X2Senegal1.18+1.2%

1X2Mozambique13.90-0.4%

1X2Draw6.20-0.8%

BTTSYes2.43-11.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

SenegalLWLLD

MozambiqueLLLWL

Team strength rating

Senegal

Mozambique

Most likely scorelines

2-018.9%

1-016.7%

3-014.2%

4-08.0%

0-07.4%

2-16.5%

Expected goals

2.25Senegal

0.35Mozambique

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score26%

Match DNA

Senegal Mozambique

Key points

Senegal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Mozambique have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Senegal have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
Senegal is priced at 1.182.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Senegal win1.18Fair (+1.2%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	3
1	17	6	1
2	19	7	1
3	14	5
4	8	3
5	4	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Senegal at 80%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Mozambique at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Senegal. Senegal is priced at 1.182. The draw is priced at 6.2. Mozambique is priced at 13.9.

Senegal have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.

Senegal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Mozambique have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 26% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →