Eldense vs Real Oviedo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Eldensevs
Real OviedoThe model puts Eldense at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Eldense (1-4-0).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Eldense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Oviedo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Eldense have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Eldense is priced at 2.632.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Eldense at 38%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Real Oviedo at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Eldense is priced at 2.632. The draw is priced at 3.2. Real Oviedo is priced at 2.768.
Eldense have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Eldense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Oviedo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Eldense or Real Oviedo?
Our model rates Eldense as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Eldense vs Real Oviedo?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Eldense wins, 4 draws, 0 Real Oviedo wins.
League table
Spain. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eibar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:6 | 18 |
| 2 |  Castellon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12:2 | 16 |
| 3 |  UD Almeria | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Burgos | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 14 |
| 5 |  Girona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | 13 |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:6 | 12 |
| 8 | Real Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Leganes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 11 |
| 10 |  Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | 11 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:11 | 10 |
| 12 |  Sporting de Gijon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 10 |
| 13 |  Granada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | 8 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Celta Fortuna | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 16 |  Real Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 17 |  Andorra Andorra la Vella | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12:15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10:16 | 6 |
| 19 | Eldense | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4:9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 21 |  AD Ceuta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 22 |  Albacete Balompie | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4:12 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.