Saint Martin vs United States Virgin Islands: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Saint Martinvs
United States Virgin IslandsThe model puts Saint Martin at 79%. United States Virgin Islands have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours United States Virgin Islands.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Saint Martin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- United States Virgin Islands are on 2 wins in a row.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
- Saint Martin is priced at 1.119.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Saint Martin at 79%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts United States Virgin Islands at 9%.
Saint Martin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. United States Virgin Islands have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. United States Virgin Islands are on 2 wins in a row.
Saint Martin have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. United States Virgin Islands have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals. The model gives 29% for both teams to score.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Saint Martin or United States Virgin Islands?
Our model rates Saint Martin as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Saint Martin vs United States Virgin Islands?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Saint Martin wins, 1 draws, 1 United States Virgin Islands wins.
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Montserrat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  British Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Turks and Caicos Islands | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.