Rayo Vallecano II vs Galapagar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rayo Vallecano IIvs
GalapagarThe model puts Rayo Vallecano II at 54%. The model leans toward Rayo Vallecano II. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Galapagar.
- +The head-to-head record favours Rayo Vallecano II (4-4-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Rayo Vallecano II have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Galapagar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano II have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rayo Vallecano II is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rayo Vallecano II at 54%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Galapagar at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Rayo Vallecano II. Rayo Vallecano II is priced at 1.66. The draw is priced at 3.62. Galapagar is priced at 4.355.
Rayo Vallecano II have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Galapagar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rayo Vallecano II have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Galapagar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rayo Vallecano II or Galapagar?
Our model rates Rayo Vallecano II as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano II vs Galapagar?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 4 Rayo Vallecano II wins, 4 draws, 2 Galapagar wins.
League table
Spain. Tercera Division RFEF. Group 7| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Trival Valderas | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 2 |  Colonia Moscardo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Las Rosas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 4 |  CD Mostoles URJC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 5 |  Leganes II | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:5 | 6 |
| 6 |  AD Cala Pozuelo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 7 | Galapagar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:4 | 5 |
| 8 |  Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:4 | 5 |
| 9 |  Union Adarve | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:2 | 5 |
| 10 |  CP Parla Escuela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 11 |  Fuenlabrada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 12 |  Pozuelo de Alarcon | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 13 |  AD Torrejon | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 14 |  San Sebastian de los Reyes II | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Mexico Paracuellos de Jarama | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:2 | 2 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano II | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 17 |  Real Aranjuez | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 18 |  Siello | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.