Greenock Morton vs Raith Rovers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Greenock Mortonvs
Raith RoversThe model puts Raith Rovers at 55%. The model leans toward Raith Rovers. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Greenock Morton.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Greenock Morton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Raith Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Greenock Morton have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Raith Rovers is priced at 1.56.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Greenock Morton at 20%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Raith Rovers at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Raith Rovers. Greenock Morton is priced at 5.21. The draw is priced at 3.66. Raith Rovers is priced at 1.56.
Greenock Morton have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Raith Rovers have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Greenock Morton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Raith Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Greenock Morton or Raith Rovers?
Our model rates Raith Rovers as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Greenock Morton vs Raith Rovers?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Greenock Morton wins, 7 draws, 3 Raith Rovers wins.
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12:2 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Livingston | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:7 | 13 |
| 4 |  Partick Thistle | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 6 |  Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6:10 | 11 |
| 7 |  Inverness | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 8 |  Ayr United | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 10 | Greenock Morton | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.