Partick Thistle vs Arbroath: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Partick Thistlevs
ArbroathThe model puts Partick Thistle at 62%. The model leans toward Partick Thistle. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Arbroath.
- −The head-to-head record favours Arbroath (2-6-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Partick Thistle have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arbroath have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Partick Thistle have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Partick Thistle is priced at 1.373.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Partick Thistle at 62%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Arbroath at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Partick Thistle. Partick Thistle is priced at 1.373. The draw is priced at 4.15. Arbroath is priced at 7.31.
Partick Thistle have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Arbroath have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Partick Thistle have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Arbroath have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Partick Thistle or Arbroath?
Our model rates Partick Thistle as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Partick Thistle vs Arbroath?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Partick Thistle wins, 6 draws, 7 Arbroath wins.
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12:2 | 22 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Livingston | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:7 | 13 |
| 4 | Partick Thistle | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6:10 | 11 |
| 7 |  Inverness | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 8 |  Ayr United | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 10 |  Greenock Morton | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.