Livingston vs Ayr United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Livingstonvs
Ayr UnitedThe model puts Livingston at 60%. The model leans toward Livingston. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Livingston.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Livingston have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ayr United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Livingston have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Livingston is priced at 1.54.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Livingston at 60%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Ayr United at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Livingston. Livingston is priced at 1.54. The draw is priced at 3.82. Ayr United is priced at 5.15.
Livingston have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Ayr United have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Livingston have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ayr United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Livingston or Ayr United?
Our model rates Livingston as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Livingston vs Ayr United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Livingston wins, 2 draws, 6 Ayr United wins.
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12:2 | 22 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:5 | 14 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:7 | 13 |
| 4 |  Partick Thistle | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 6 |  Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6:10 | 11 |
| 7 |  Inverness | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 8 | Ayr United | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 10 |  Greenock Morton | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.