Waterhouse vs Treasure Beach: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Waterhousevs
Treasure BeachThe model puts Waterhouse at 51%. The model leans toward Waterhouse. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Waterhouse.
- +The head-to-head record favours Waterhouse (3-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Waterhouse have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Treasure Beach have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Waterhouse have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Waterhouse is priced at 1.87.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Waterhouse at 51%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Treasure Beach at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Waterhouse. Waterhouse is priced at 1.87. The draw is priced at 3.4. Treasure Beach is priced at 3.57.
Waterhouse have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Treasure Beach have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Waterhouse have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Treasure Beach have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Waterhouse or Treasure Beach?
Our model rates Waterhouse as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Waterhouse vs Treasure Beach?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 3 Waterhouse wins, 1 draws, 1 Treasure Beach wins.
Odds movement
League table
Jamaica. National Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Racing United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Tru Juice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 3 |  Tivoli Gardens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Montego Bay United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:0 | 4 |
| 5 | Waterhouse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Arnett Gardens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 7 |  Cavalier | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Molynes United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Chapelton Maroons | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 10 | Treasure Beach | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 11 |  Portmore United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Dunbeholden | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 13 |  Mount Pleasant Academy | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
| 14 |  Humble Lions | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.