Greece vs Germany: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Greecevs
GermanyThe model puts Germany at 47%. The model leans toward Germany. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Germany.
- −The head-to-head record favours Greece (4-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Greece have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Germany have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Greece have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Germany is priced at 1.91.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Greece at 32%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Germany at 47%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Germany. Greece is priced at 3.38. The draw is priced at 4.26. Germany is priced at 1.91.
Greece have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Greece have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Germany have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Greece or Germany?
Our model rates Germany as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Greece vs Germany?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 4 Greece wins, 0 draws, 0 Germany wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Belgium | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Italy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Turkey | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.