Greece vs Germany: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Greecevs
GermanyThe model puts Germany at 52%. The model leans toward Germany. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Greece (4-0-1).
- +Greece are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Germany are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Greece have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Germany have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Greece have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Greece will be without Konstantelias, Hatzidiakos, Tzolis, Giannoulis D..
- Germany will be without Gruda, Ouedraogo, Gnabry, Goretzka, Musiala, Havertz, Schlotterbeck.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Greece at 25%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Germany at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Germany. Greece is priced at 4.2. The draw is priced at 3.96. Germany is priced at 1.775.
Greece have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Germany have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Greece have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Germany have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Greece average 2 goals per game this season. Greece average 29% possession. Germany average 1 goals per game this season. Germany average 47% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Greece or Germany?
Our model rates Germany as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Greece vs Germany?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 4 Greece wins, 0 draws, 1 Germany wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.