England vs Czech Republic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Englandvs
Czech RepublicThe model puts England at 79%. The model leans toward England. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Czech Republic.
- −The head-to-head record favours Czech Republic (1-1-3).
- −England are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Czech Republic are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- England have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Czech Republic have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- England have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- England will be without Burn D., James R., Konsa, Livramento V., Mainoo K., O'Reilly N., Palmer C., Rice, Rashford M., Scott, Stones, Henderson D..
- Czech Republic will be without Chaloupek, Visinsky, Vlcek T., Zima D., Karabec A., Krejci 1999, Provod, Rynes, Chory T., Cerv Lu., Jurasek D..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts England at 79%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Czech Republic at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward England. England is priced at 1.12. The draw is priced at 9.2. Czech Republic is priced at 19.
England have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Czech Republic have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
England have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Czech Republic have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
England average 2 goals per game this season. England average 47% possession. Czech Republic average 1 goals per game this season. Czech Republic average 31% possession.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, England or Czech Republic?
Our model rates England as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for England vs Czech Republic?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 England wins, 1 draws, 3 Czech Republic wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.