Boca Juniors vs Union de Santa Fe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Boca Juniorsvs
Union de Santa FeThe model puts Boca Juniors at 57%. The model leans toward Boca Juniors. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Union de Santa Fe.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Boca Juniors have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union de Santa Fe have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Boca Juniors is priced at 1.593.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Boca Juniors at 57%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Union de Santa Fe at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Boca Juniors. Boca Juniors is priced at 1.593. The draw is priced at 3.86. Union de Santa Fe is priced at 6.02.
Boca Juniors have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Union de Santa Fe have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Boca Juniors have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Union de Santa Fe have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Union de Santa Fe are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Boca Juniors or Union de Santa Fe?
Our model rates Boca Juniors as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Boca Juniors vs Union de Santa Fe?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Boca Juniors wins, 5 draws, 6 Union de Santa Fe wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 22 |
| 2 |  Velez Sarsfield | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15:9 | 20 |
| 3 |  Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 17 |
| 7 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13:9 | 16 |
| 8 |  Newell's Old Boys | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:8 | 16 |
| 9 | Union de Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 10:11 | 10 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Platense | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 8 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:13 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.