Haiti vs Costa Rica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Haitivs
Costa RicaThe model puts Costa Rica at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Haiti.
- +The head-to-head record favours Costa Rica (2-6-5).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The model sees this as a close contest.
- Costa Rica have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Costa Rica have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Haiti have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Costa Rica at 38%. The model puts Haiti at 37%. The model puts the draw at 26%.
Costa Rica have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings. Haiti have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Costa Rica have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Haiti have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Haiti or Costa Rica?
Our model rates Costa Rica as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Haiti vs Costa Rica?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 2 Haiti wins, 6 draws, 5 Costa Rica wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Curacao | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 2 | Haiti | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Dominican Republic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 5 |  Trinidad and Tobago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 6 |  Nicaragua | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.