Thailand vs Vietnam: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Thailandvs
VietnamThe model puts Thailand at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Vietnam.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Thailand have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vietnam have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Thailand have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Thailand is priced at 2.23.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Thailand at 40%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Vietnam at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Thailand is priced at 2.23. The draw is priced at 3.24. Vietnam is priced at 3.105.
Thailand have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Vietnam have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Thailand have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Vietnam have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Thailand or Vietnam?
Our model rates Thailand as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Thailand vs Vietnam?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Thailand wins, 5 draws, 6 Vietnam wins.
Odds movement
League table
ASEAN Cup. Division 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Malaysia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:0 | 4 |
| 2 |  Indonesia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:0 | 4 |
| 3 |  Singapore | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Bangladesh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.