Jamaica vs Honduras: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Jamaicavs
HondurasThe model puts Jamaica at 49%. The model leans toward Jamaica. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Jamaica.
- +The head-to-head record favours Jamaica (8-3-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Jamaica have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Honduras have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jamaica have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Jamaica is priced at 2.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Jamaica at 49%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Honduras at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Jamaica. Jamaica is priced at 2.06. The draw is priced at 3.4. Honduras is priced at 3.34.
Jamaica have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Honduras have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Jamaica have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Honduras have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Jamaica or Honduras?
Our model rates Jamaica as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Jamaica vs Honduras?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Jamaica wins, 3 draws, 4 Honduras wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Curacao | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Haiti | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Dominican Republic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Costa Rica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 5 |  Trinidad and Tobago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 6 |  Nicaragua | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.