CONCACAF Nations League

Saint Lucia vs Bermuda: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Saint Luciavs

Bermuda

Our predictionBermuda to win

Model score: Low · 8/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Bermuda at 41%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Saint Lucia32%

Draw27%

2 · Bermuda41%

1 · Saint LuciaDraw2 · Bermuda

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.32+7.5%

1X2Saint Lucia2.86-0.0%

1X2Draw3.45-0.0%

1X2Bermuda2.27-0.0%

BTTSYes1.54-7.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

0-110.5%

1-08.8%

1-28.8%

0-07.4%

2-17.4%

Team strength rating

Saint Lucia

Bermuda

Expected goals

1.19Saint Lucia

1.41Bermuda

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Saint Lucia Bermuda

Key points

Bermuda is priced at 2.27.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Bermuda win2.27Fair

Double chanceBermuda or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	10	7	3	1
1	9	12	9	4	1
2	5	7	5	2
3	2	3	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Saint Lucia at 32%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Bermuda at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market frames this as a close contest. Saint Lucia is priced at 2.864. The draw is priced at 3.45. Bermuda is priced at 2.27.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →