Castellon vs AD Ceuta: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Castellonvs
AD CeutaThe model puts Castellon at 73%. The model leans toward Castellon. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours AD Ceuta.
- −The head-to-head record favours AD Ceuta (0-3-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Castellon have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Castellon is priced at 1.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Castellon at 73%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts AD Ceuta at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Castellon. Castellon is priced at 1.25. The draw is priced at 6.3. AD Ceuta is priced at 10.
AD Ceuta have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Castellon have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. AD Ceuta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Castellon or AD Ceuta?
Our model rates Castellon as the most likely outcome at 73% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Castellon vs AD Ceuta?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 0 Castellon wins, 3 draws, 1 AD Ceuta wins.
League table
Spain. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eibar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:6 | 18 |
| 2 | Castellon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12:2 | 16 |
| 3 |  UD Almeria | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Burgos | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 14 |
| 5 |  Girona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | 13 |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:6 | 12 |
| 8 |  Real Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Leganes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 11 |
| 10 |  Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | 11 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:11 | 10 |
| 12 |  Sporting de Gijon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 10 |
| 13 |  Granada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | 8 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Celta Fortuna | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 16 |  Real Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 17 |  Andorra Andorra la Vella | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12:15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10:16 | 6 |
| 19 |  Eldense | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4:9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 22 |  Albacete Balompie | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4:12 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.