Sporting de Gijon vs Celta Fortuna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sporting de Gijonvs
Celta FortunaThe model puts Sporting de Gijon at 62%. The model leans toward Sporting de Gijon. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sporting de Gijon have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Celta Fortuna have 0 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Sporting de Gijon is priced at 1.55.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 20 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sporting de Gijon at 62%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Celta Fortuna at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sporting de Gijon. Sporting de Gijon is priced at 1.55. The draw is priced at 4.28. Celta Fortuna is priced at 5.7.
Sporting de Gijon have 1 wins in their last 3 matches. Celta Fortuna have 0 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 33% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sporting de Gijon or Celta Fortuna?
Our model rates Sporting de Gijon as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sporting de Gijon vs Celta Fortuna?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eibar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:6 | 18 |
| 2 |  Castellon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12:2 | 16 |
| 3 |  UD Almeria | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Burgos | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 14 |
| 5 |  Girona | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | 13 |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:6 | 12 |
| 8 |  Real Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Leganes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 11 |
| 10 |  Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | 11 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:11 | 10 |
| 12 | Sporting de Gijon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 10 |
| 13 |  Granada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | 8 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 15 | Celta Fortuna | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 16 |  Real Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 17 |  Andorra Andorra la Vella | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12:15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10:16 | 6 |
| 19 |  Eldense | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4:9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 21 |  AD Ceuta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 22 |  Albacete Balompie | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4:12 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.