Ukraine vs Hungary: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ukrainevs
HungaryThe model puts Ukraine at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Ukraine.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ukraine have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hungary have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ukraine is priced at 2.48.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Ukraine at 40%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Hungary at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Ukraine is priced at 2.48. The draw is priced at 3.38. Hungary is priced at 2.82.
Hungary have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Ukraine have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Hungary have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ukraine or Hungary?
Our model rates Ukraine as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ukraine vs Hungary?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Ukraine wins, 0 draws, 1 Hungary wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Slovenia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:0 | 4 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 4 |  Republic of North Macedonia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.