UEFA Nations League

Northern Ireland vs Georgia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Northern Irelandvs

Georgia

Our predictionNorthern Ireland to win

Model score: Medium · 39/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Northern Ireland at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Northern Ireland.

Win probabilities

1 · Northern Ireland39%

Draw28%

2 · Georgia33%

1 · Northern IrelandDraw2 · Georgia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Northern Ireland2.56+2.0%

BTTSNo2.03+0.9%

BTTSYes1.75-0.9%

1X2Draw3.34-0.9%

1X2Georgia2.75-1.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Northern Ireland

Georgia

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

1-010.2%

0-19.1%

2-18.6%

1-27.7%

0-07.4%

Recent form

Northern IrelandDWLDW

GeorgiaDLLWD

Expected goals

1.37Northern Ireland

1.23Georgia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Northern Ireland Georgia

Key points

Northern Ireland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Georgia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Northern Ireland is priced at 2.565.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Northern Ireland win2.56Fair (+2.0%)

Double chanceNorthern Ireland or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	9	6	2
1	10	13	8	3
2	7	9	5	2
3	3	4	2
4	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Northern Ireland at 39%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Georgia at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. Northern Ireland is priced at 2.565. The draw is priced at 3.34. Georgia is priced at 2.745.

Georgia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.

Northern Ireland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Georgia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

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