Northern Ireland vs Georgia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Northern Irelandvs
GeorgiaThe model puts Northern Ireland at 37%. The model puts Georgia at 32%. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Georgia.
- −Northern Ireland are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- The model sees this as a close contest.
- Georgia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Northern Ireland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Georgia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Georgia average 58% possession.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27 | 17 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 19 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Northern Ireland at 37%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Georgia at 32%.
Northern Ireland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Georgia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Georgia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Northern Ireland take 10 shots per game. Georgia take 8 shots per game. Georgia average 58% possession. Northern Ireland average 36% possession.
Northern Ireland will be without Mick McCann, Ballard D.. Georgia will be without Kiteishvili.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 14% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Northern Ireland or Georgia?
Our model rates Northern Ireland as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Northern Ireland wins, 0 draws, 2 Georgia wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.