Union Magdalena vs Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Union Magdalenavs
Corporacion Deportiva Real CartagenaThe model puts Union Magdalena at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Union Magdalena have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union Magdalena have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Union Magdalena is priced at 2.256.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Union Magdalena at 42%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Union Magdalena is priced at 2.256. The draw is priced at 3.54. Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena is priced at 3.048.
Union Magdalena have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Union Magdalena have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Union Magdalena or Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena?
Our model rates Union Magdalena as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Union Magdalena vs Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Union Magdalena wins, 5 draws, 4 Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Colombia. Categoria Primera B - Clausura| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Cundinamarca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:9 | 20 |
| 2 |  Independiente Yumbo | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14:6 | 20 |
| 3 |  Tigres Futbol Club | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12:4 | 18 |
| 4 |  Patriotas Boyaca | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 5 | Corporacion Deportiva Real Cartagena | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16:10 | 14 |
| 6 |  Boca Juniors De Cali | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14:11 | 14 |
| 7 |  Atletico Cali | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:15 | 14 |
| 8 |  Internacional Palmira | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Deportes Quindío | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 10 |  Real Santander | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:15 | 12 |
| 11 |  Bogota | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Envigado | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:8 | 10 |
| 13 |  Orsomarso | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Leones | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 7:16 | 9 |
| 15 |  Barranquilla | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5:9 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.