Al Waab vs Lusail: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al Waabvs
LusailThe model puts Lusail at 51%. The model leans toward Lusail. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lusail.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al Waab have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lusail have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Waab have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lusail is priced at 1.904.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Al Waab at 25%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Lusail at 51%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Lusail. Al Waab is priced at 3.62. The draw is priced at 3.94. Lusail is priced at 1.904.
Al Waab have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Lusail have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al Waab have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Lusail have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al Waab or Lusail?
Our model rates Lusail as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al Waab vs Lusail?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Al Waab wins, 1 draws, 6 Lusail wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Qatar. Stars Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Duhail | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Al-Wakrah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Al Shamal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Muaither | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Umm Salal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 | Lusail | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 | Al Waab | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Al-Shahaniya | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Al Rayyan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 10 |  Qatar SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Al-Sailiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Al Kharaitiyat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 13 |  Al-Gharafa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Al Ahli Doha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  Al-Markhiya Sports Club | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Al-Mesaimeer | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Al-Arabi Doha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Al-Khor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Al Bidda SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.