Al-Khor vs Umm Salal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al-Khorvs
Umm SalalThe model puts Umm Salal at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Al-Khor.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Al-Khor have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Umm Salal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Khor have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Umm Salal is priced at 2.064.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al-Khor at 33%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Umm Salal at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Umm Salal. Al-Khor is priced at 3.12. The draw is priced at 4.02. Umm Salal is priced at 2.064.
Al-Khor have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Umm Salal have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al-Khor have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Umm Salal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al-Khor or Umm Salal?
Our model rates Umm Salal as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al-Khor vs Umm Salal?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Al-Khor wins, 5 draws, 5 Umm Salal wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Qatar. Stars Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Duhail | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Al-Wakrah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Al Shamal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Muaither | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 | Umm Salal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Lusail | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Al Waab | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Al-Shahaniya | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Al Rayyan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 10 |  Qatar SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Al-Sailiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Al Kharaitiyat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 13 |  Al-Gharafa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Al Ahli Doha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  Al-Markhiya Sports Club | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Al-Mesaimeer | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Al-Arabi Doha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 | Al-Khor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Al Bidda SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.