Jubilo Iwata vs JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Jubilo Iwatavs
JEF United Ichihara ChibaThe model puts JEF United Ichihara Chiba at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours JEF United Ichihara Chiba.
- +The head-to-head record favours JEF United Ichihara Chiba (3-2-10).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Jubilo Iwata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jubilo Iwata have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba is priced at 2.7.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Jubilo Iwata at 37%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts JEF United Ichihara Chiba at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Jubilo Iwata is priced at 2.375. The draw is priced at 3.4. JEF United Ichihara Chiba is priced at 2.7.
Jubilo Iwata have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. JEF United Ichihara Chiba have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Jubilo Iwata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. JEF United Ichihara Chiba have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Jubilo Iwata or JEF United Ichihara Chiba?
Our model rates JEF United Ichihara Chiba as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Jubilo Iwata vs JEF United Ichihara Chiba?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Jubilo Iwata wins, 2 draws, 10 JEF United Ichihara Chiba wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.