Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sagan Tosuvs
Tokyo VerdyThe model puts Tokyo Verdy at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sagan Tosu.
- −The head-to-head record favours Sagan Tosu (8-2-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sagan Tosu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tokyo Verdy have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sagan Tosu have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tokyo Verdy is priced at 2.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sagan Tosu at 36%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Tokyo Verdy at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sagan Tosu is priced at 2.984. The draw is priced at 3.32. Tokyo Verdy is priced at 2.26.
Sagan Tosu have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Tokyo Verdy have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sagan Tosu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Tokyo Verdy have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sagan Tosu or Tokyo Verdy?
Our model rates Tokyo Verdy as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Sagan Tosu wins, 2 draws, 5 Tokyo Verdy wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.