Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama F. Marinos: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Montedio Yamagatavs
Yokohama F. MarinosThe model puts Yokohama F. Marinos at 54%. The model leans toward Yokohama F. Marinos. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Montedio Yamagata (6-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Montedio Yamagata have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Yokohama F. Marinos have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Montedio Yamagata have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Yokohama F. Marinos is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Montedio Yamagata at 23%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Yokohama F. Marinos at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Yokohama F. Marinos. Montedio Yamagata is priced at 4.635. The draw is priced at 3.88. Yokohama F. Marinos is priced at 1.65.
Montedio Yamagata have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Yokohama F. Marinos have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Montedio Yamagata have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Yokohama F. Marinos have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Montedio Yamagata or Yokohama F. Marinos?
Our model rates Yokohama F. Marinos as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 6 Montedio Yamagata wins, 2 draws, 3 Yokohama F. Marinos wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.