Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Matsumoto Yamagavs
Albirex NiigataThe model puts Albirex Niigata at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Matsumoto Yamaga have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Albirex Niigata have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Matsumoto Yamaga have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Albirex Niigata is priced at 2.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Matsumoto Yamaga at 34%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Albirex Niigata at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Matsumoto Yamaga is priced at 2.7. The draw is priced at 3.46. Albirex Niigata is priced at 2.34.
Matsumoto Yamaga have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Albirex Niigata have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Matsumoto Yamaga have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Albirex Niigata have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Matsumoto Yamaga or Albirex Niigata?
Our model rates Albirex Niigata as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 3 Matsumoto Yamaga wins, 3 draws, 5 Albirex Niigata wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.