NK Podvinci vs NK Ljutomer: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
NK Podvincivs
NK LjutomerThe model puts NK Podvinci at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- NK Podvinci have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- NK Ljutomer have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- NK Podvinci have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- NK Podvinci is priced at 2.08.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts NK Podvinci at 45%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts NK Ljutomer at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward NK Podvinci. NK Podvinci is priced at 2.08. The draw is priced at 4.18. NK Ljutomer is priced at 3.
NK Podvinci have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. NK Ljutomer have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
NK Podvinci have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. NK Ljutomer have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 64% for both teams to score. The model gives 65% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, NK Podvinci or NK Ljutomer?
Our model rates NK Podvinci as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for NK Podvinci vs NK Ljutomer?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 2 NK Podvinci wins, 3 draws, 3 NK Ljutomer wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Slovenia. 3. SNL| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NK Odranci | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 24:11 | 19 |
| 2 |  KHK Fuzinar | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23:16 | 15 |
| 3 |  Ormoz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17:11 | 13 |
| 4 |  NK Smartno 1928 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18:14 | 13 |
| 5 |  NK Carda Martjanci | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18:13 | 11 |
| 6 |  NK Korotan Prevalje | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 7 | NK Podvinci | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:14 | 10 |
| 8 |  Hajdina | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:15 | 9 |
| 9 | NK Ljutomer | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:10 | 8 |
| 10 |  SD Videm | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 11 |  NK Race | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  NK Dobrovce | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 13 |  Sampion | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11:18 | 4 |
| 14 |  Limbus Pekre | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.