Ejidatarios de Bonfil vs Deportiva Venados: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ejidatarios de Bonfilvs
Deportiva VenadosThe model puts Ejidatarios de Bonfil at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportiva Venados have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Ejidatarios de Bonfil is priced at 2.175.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ejidatarios de Bonfil at 44%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Deportiva Venados at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Ejidatarios de Bonfil. Ejidatarios de Bonfil is priced at 2.175. The draw is priced at 3.84. Deportiva Venados is priced at 3.005.
Deportiva Venados have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ejidatarios de Bonfil or Deportiva Venados?
Our model rates Ejidatarios de Bonfil as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ejidatarios de Bonfil vs Deportiva Venados?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.