Gezira vs Nogoom: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Geziravs
NogoomThe model puts Nogoom at 54%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Nogoom is priced at 1.752.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gezira at 21%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Nogoom at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Nogoom. Gezira is priced at 4.78. The draw is priced at 3.64. Nogoom is priced at 1.752.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 39% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gezira or Nogoom?
Our model rates Nogoom as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gezira vs Nogoom?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.