Follo vs Sarpsborg 08: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Follovs
Sarpsborg 08The model puts Sarpsborg 08 at 78%. The model leans toward Sarpsborg 08. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Follo (6-2-0).
- −Recent form favours Follo.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Follo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Follo have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sarpsborg 08 is priced at 1.095.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Follo at 12%. The model puts the draw at 10%. The model puts Sarpsborg 08 at 78%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Sarpsborg 08. Follo is priced at 19.5. The draw is priced at 8.2. Sarpsborg 08 is priced at 1.095.
Follo have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Follo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Sarpsborg 08 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Follo or Sarpsborg 08?
Our model rates Sarpsborg 08 as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Follo vs Sarpsborg 08?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 6 Follo wins, 2 draws, 0 Sarpsborg 08 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.