Khovd vs Ulaanbaatar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Khovdvs
UlaanbaatarThe model puts Ulaanbaatar at 79%. The model leans toward Ulaanbaatar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Khovd (9-3-0).
- +Recent form favours Khovd.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Khovd have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ulaanbaatar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Khovd have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ulaanbaatar is priced at 1.11.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Khovd at 12%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Ulaanbaatar at 79%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Ulaanbaatar. Khovd is priced at 10.5. The draw is priced at 9.4. Ulaanbaatar is priced at 1.11.
Khovd have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Khovd have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Ulaanbaatar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ulaanbaatar are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Khovd or Ulaanbaatar?
Our model rates Ulaanbaatar as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Khovd vs Ulaanbaatar?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 9 Khovd wins, 3 draws, 0 Ulaanbaatar wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Mongolia. National Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Central Stallions | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:1 | 12 |
| 2 |  Deren | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Ulaanbaatar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 7 |
| 4 | Khovd | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:8 | 6 |
| 5 |  Erchim | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:12 | 6 |
| 6 |  Khovd Western | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:8 | 3 |
| 7 |  Amtat | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:17 | 3 |
| 8 |  Hunters | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 9 |  Ulaangom City | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:14 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.