Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Papua New Guineavs
Solomon IslandsThe model puts Solomon Islands at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Papua New Guinea.
- +The head-to-head record favours Solomon Islands (4-1-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Papua New Guinea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Solomon Islands have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Papua New Guinea have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Solomon Islands is priced at 2.51.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Papua New Guinea at 32%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Solomon Islands at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Papua New Guinea is priced at 2.73. The draw is priced at 3.125. Solomon Islands is priced at 2.51.
Papua New Guinea have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Solomon Islands have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Papua New Guinea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Solomon Islands have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Papua New Guinea or Solomon Islands?
Our model rates Solomon Islands as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 4 Papua New Guinea wins, 1 draws, 7 Solomon Islands wins.
League table
Friendlies. National Teams| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  China | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Curacao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.