United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
United States Virgin Islandsvs
Saint MartinThe model puts Saint Martin at 65%. The model leans toward Saint Martin. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours United States Virgin Islands.
- +The head-to-head record favours Saint Martin (1-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- United States Virgin Islands have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Saint Martin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- United States Virgin Islands have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Saint Martin is priced at 1.374.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts United States Virgin Islands at 15%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Saint Martin at 65%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Saint Martin. United States Virgin Islands is priced at 8.05. The draw is priced at 4.4. Saint Martin is priced at 1.374.
United States Virgin Islands have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Saint Martin have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
United States Virgin Islands have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. United States Virgin Islands are on 3 wins in a row. Saint Martin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, United States Virgin Islands or Saint Martin?
Our model rates Saint Martin as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 United States Virgin Islands wins, 1 draws, 2 Saint Martin wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Montserrat | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Turks and Caicos Islands | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 3 |  British Virgin Islands | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.