India. IFA Shield Tournament

East Bengal vs Punjab FC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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East Bengalvs

Punjab FC

Our predictionPunjab FC to win

Model score: Medium · 44/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Punjab FC at 54%. The model leans toward Punjab FC. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours East Bengal (8-5-2).

Win probabilities

1 · East Bengal25%

Draw21%

2 · Punjab FC54%

1 · East BengalDraw2 · Punjab FC

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2East Bengal4.28+3.1%

O/U 2.5Over 2.51.56+2.8%

BTTSYes1.53+1.6%

1X2Draw4.42-0.9%

BTTSNo2.29-1.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

East BengalWWDDD

Punjab FCWLWDW

Expected goals

1.23East Bengal

2.02Punjab FC

Over 2.5 goals63%

Both teams to score61%

Team strength rating

East Bengal

Punjab FC

Most likely scorelines

1-29.7%

1-19.6%

0-27.9%

0-17.8%

1-36.5%

2-26.0%

Match DNA

East Bengal Punjab FC

Key points

East Bengal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Punjab FC have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
East Bengal have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
Punjab FC is priced at 1.685.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Punjab FC win1.69Fair (-2.3%)

Double chancePunjab FC or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.56Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	8	8	5	3	1
1	5	10	10	7	3	1
2	3	6	6	4	2
3	1	2	2	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts East Bengal at 25%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Punjab FC at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market leans toward Punjab FC. East Bengal is priced at 4.28. The draw is priced at 4.42. Punjab FC is priced at 1.685.

East Bengal have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Punjab FC have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.

East Bengal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. East Bengal are on 2 wins in a row. Punjab FC have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 61% for both teams to score. The model gives 63% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →