Finland vs Albania: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Finlandvs
AlbaniaThe model puts Finland at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Finland.
- −The head-to-head record favours Albania (0-0-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Finland have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Albania have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Finland is priced at 2.32.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Finland at 42%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Albania at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Finland is priced at 2.32. The draw is priced at 3.22. Albania is priced at 3.2.
Albania have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Finland have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Albania have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Finland or Albania?
Our model rates Finland as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Finland vs Albania?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Finland wins, 0 draws, 3 Albania wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Finland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:0 | 4 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | 1 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.