UEFA Nations League

Switzerland vs Slovenia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Switzerlandvs

Slovenia

Our predictionSwitzerland to win

Model score: High · 63/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Switzerland at 64%. The model leans toward Switzerland. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Switzerland.
−The head-to-head record favours Slovenia (2-2-6).

Win probabilities

1 · Switzerland64%

Draw19%

2 · Slovenia18%

1 · SwitzerlandDraw2 · Slovenia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Slovenia8.10+5.9%

BTTSNo1.70+2.3%

1X2Draw4.76-1.3%

BTTSYes2.06-2.3%

1X2Switzerland1.39-4.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

SwitzerlandLDLDW

SloveniaWWLLL

Team strength rating

Switzerland

Slovenia

Most likely scorelines

1-014.1%

2-013.4%

1-19.9%

2-19.4%

3-08.5%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.90Switzerland

0.70Slovenia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score43%

Match DNA

Switzerland Slovenia

Key points

Switzerland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Slovenia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Switzerland have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Switzerland is priced at 1.39.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Switzerland win1.39Avoid (-4.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	5	2
1	14	10	3
2	13	9	3
3	8	6	2
4	4	3
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Switzerland at 64%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Slovenia at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Switzerland. Switzerland is priced at 1.39. The draw is priced at 4.76. Slovenia is priced at 8.1.

Switzerland have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Slovenia have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Switzerland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Slovenia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Slovenia are on 2 wins in a row.

The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →