Erchim vs Central Stallions: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Erchimvs
Central StallionsThe model puts Central Stallions at 87%. The model leans toward Central Stallions. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Central Stallions.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Erchim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Central Stallions have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Erchim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Central Stallions is priced at 1.005.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 15 | 9 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Erchim at 6%. The model puts the draw at 7%. The model puts Central Stallions at 87%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Central Stallions. Erchim is priced at 17.5. The draw is priced at 14. Central Stallions is priced at 1.005.
Erchim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Central Stallions have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Erchim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Central Stallions have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Central Stallions are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 20% for both teams to score. The model gives 45% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Erchim or Central Stallions?
Our model rates Central Stallions as the most likely outcome at 87% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Erchim vs Central Stallions?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 5 Erchim wins, 2 draws, 4 Central Stallions wins.
Odds movement
League table
Mongolia. National Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Stallions | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:1 | 12 |
| 2 |  Ulaanbaatar | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18:3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Deren | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Khovdyn Khuleguud | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:12 | 6 |
| 5 | Erchim | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:12 | 6 |
| 6 |  Khovd Western | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:8 | 3 |
| 7 |  Hunters | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8:12 | 3 |
| 8 |  Amtat | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4:17 | 3 |
| 9 |  Ulaangom City | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4:18 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.