Buxton vs South Shields: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Buxtonvs
South ShieldsThe model puts South Shields at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours South Shields.
- −The head-to-head record favours Buxton (7-5-3).
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Buxton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- South Shields have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Buxton have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- South Shields is priced at 2.16.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Buxton at 36%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts South Shields at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Buxton is priced at 2.7. The draw is priced at 4.54. South Shields is priced at 2.16.
Buxton have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. South Shields have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Buxton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. South Shields have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Buxton or South Shields?
Our model rates South Shields as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Buxton vs South Shields?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Buxton wins, 5 draws, 3 South Shields wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.