Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Saint Luciavs
GuadeloupeThe model puts Guadeloupe at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Saint Lucia.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Saint Lucia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guadeloupe have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Saint Lucia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Guadeloupe is priced at 2.11.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Saint Lucia at 34%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Guadeloupe at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Guadeloupe. Saint Lucia is priced at 2.981. The draw is priced at 3.7. Guadeloupe is priced at 2.11.
Saint Lucia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Guadeloupe have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Saint Lucia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Guadeloupe have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Saint Lucia or Guadeloupe?
Our model rates Guadeloupe as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Saint Lucia wins, 0 draws, 1 Guadeloupe wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guyana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Puerto Rico | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Dominica | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | 1 |
| 4 |  Cayman Islands | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.