CONCACAF Nations League

Suriname vs Guatemala: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Surinamevs

Guatemala

Our predictionSuriname to win

Model score: Low · 14/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Suriname at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Guatemala.
+The head-to-head record favours Suriname (2-2-0).

Win probabilities

1 · Suriname38%

Draw27%

2 · Guatemala35%

1 · SurinameDraw2 · Guatemala

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.08+2.6%

1X2Guatemala2.74+1.7%

1X2Suriname2.43-0.2%

1X2Draw3.24-1.5%

BTTSYes1.67-2.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

SurinameLLLLL

GuatemalaLWLWL

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

1-09.9%

0-19.4%

2-18.3%

1-28.0%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

Suriname

Guatemala

Expected goals

1.33Suriname

1.27Guatemala

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Suriname Guatemala

Key points

Suriname have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Guatemala have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Suriname have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Suriname is priced at 2.43.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Suriname win2.43Fair

Double chanceSuriname or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	9	6	3
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2
3	3	4	2
4		1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Suriname at 38%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Guatemala at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. Suriname is priced at 2.43. The draw is priced at 3.24. Guatemala is priced at 2.74.

Suriname have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Suriname have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Guatemala have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →