El Salvador vs Jamaica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
El Salvadorvs
JamaicaThe model puts El Salvador at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours El Salvador.
- +The head-to-head record favours El Salvador (7-6-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- El Salvador have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jamaica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- El Salvador have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- El Salvador is priced at 2.67.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts El Salvador at 39%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Jamaica at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. El Salvador is priced at 2.67. The draw is priced at 3.18. Jamaica is priced at 2.52.
El Salvador have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Jamaica have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
El Salvador have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Jamaica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, El Salvador or Jamaica?
Our model rates El Salvador as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for El Salvador vs Jamaica?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 El Salvador wins, 6 draws, 2 Jamaica wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Curacao | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 |
| 2 |  Haiti | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Dominican Republic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trinidad and Tobago | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 0 |
| 5 |  Costa Rica | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:6 | 0 |
| 6 |  Nicaragua | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.