South Korea U23 vs Japan U23: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
South Korea U23vs
Japan U23The model puts South Korea U23 at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours South Korea U23.
- −The head-to-head record favours Japan U23 (3-0-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- South Korea U23 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Japan U23 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- South Korea U23 have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- South Korea U23 is priced at 2.476.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts South Korea U23 at 40%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Japan U23 at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. South Korea U23 is priced at 2.476. The draw is priced at 3.39. Japan U23 is priced at 2.825.
South Korea U23 have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Japan U23 have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
South Korea U23 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Japan U23 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, South Korea U23 or Japan U23?
Our model rates South Korea U23 as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for South Korea U23 vs Japan U23?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 3 South Korea U23 wins, 0 draws, 5 Japan U23 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.